The current Quadrennial
Defense Review will be the most important for many decades, as it
encompasses developing needs which have changed most dramatically since
the end of the Cold War.
The United States is now grappling with the realities of the
twenty first century, a world which has split along the divide of the
wealthy and developed, and the poor and the undeveloped. The smooth
continuum of wealth and national development which charactertised the
world of two decades ago has vanished, as the collapse of the Soviet
Empire and economic globalisation have created two distinct strata of
nations.
The
Dichotomy in Force
Structure Needs
The Americans now confront a world in which there are two
distinct categories of potential and actual opponent. The first are
developed or developing nation states with agendas including Iran, the
DPRK and, importantly, the PRC. The second are failed states, failing
states, underdeveloped nation states, and associated non-state entities
with military or paramilitary agendas. The ongoing Global War on Terror
(GWOT) concentrated on Al Qaeda and its affiliates is the primary focus
in this domain, accepting that challenges like the Somali militias and
like will continue to pop up over coming decades.
This dichotomy in force structure needs is the greatest single
planning challenge the US has faced for nearly a century. Throughout
the last century the focus in almost all force structure planning has
been nation state conflict, by neccessity. This peaked at the end of
the Cold War, when almost all of the budgetary outlays in the US, and
other Western nations, were concentrated into assets intended to defeat
the Soviet Bloc in a full scale conflict.
In historical terms this is not a unique case study. The
Romans faced similar issues in the latter centuries of the empire, as
nation state opponents reduced in numbers and tribal conflicts at the
periphery of the colonies dominated planning and expenditures. The
British Empire faced a similar dichotomy in its latter years, and
preoccupation with force structure planning to deal with colonial
rebellions and movements had much to do with Britain's inability to
deal with the rise of Germany and Japan during the 1930s.
This presents US planners with some genuinely difficult
choices, as the emerging world environment presents major risks in the
domain of nation state conflict, as well as the domain of failed states
and non-state actors. The potential for the latter to acquire Weapons
of Mass Destruction has elevated the latter to a position in the public
debate which is often overwhelming.
In practical terms this amounts to a need for a two tier force
structure, in which an 'upper tier' exists to deter or defeat nation
state threats, and in which a 'lower tier' exists to defeat non-state
actors and other 'irregular' threats.
In a sense this reflects the Tofflerian paradigm of
information age societies confronting industrial age and agrarian age
opponents. Two categories of opponent each requiring unique
capabilities to defeat inevitably results in a two tier force structure
model.
This is the context in which we must consider the future, and
possible decisions which US force structure planners and their
leadership must make.
Nation state players of strategic interest to the US over
coming decades will have access to a wide range of military
technologies, and adaptations of commercial technologies widely used in
the West. Post 1991 Russia has progressively abandoned all earlier
constraints on the export of high technology weapons. As a result we
see late Soviet era analogues of equivalent US systems proliferating
widely, and in the instance of China, being absorbed by the domestic
technology base and locally manufactured. Sukhoi Su-27/30 Flanker
fighters - analogues to the F-15, A-50 AWACS - analogues to the E-3
AWACS, Il-78 Midas tankers - analogues to the KC-135, Almaz S-300
Grumble Surface to Air Missiles - analogues to the MIM-104 Patriot,
Kh-55/RKV-500 Kent cruise missiles - analogues to the BGM-109 Tomahawk,
KAB-500/1500 smart bombs - analogues to the Paveway and GBU-15 series,
and a host of other such technologies have proliferated since 1991.
While China has been the leading buyer of these technologies,
the global footprint is much greater. In dealing with any non-trivial
nation state conflict over coming decades, US forces will confront
essentially the same technologies which comprise most of the current US
Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and Army inventories.
In terms of equipment types, the
purchasing patterns observed have also shifted considerably, especially
in Asia. The focus has been and remains on acquiring those technologies
which the US has used to such effect since the end of the Cold War. In
practical terms air power has been the core of large scale acquisitions
of advanced equipment, followed by submarines and anti-shipping cruise
missiles.
To remain competitive in
nation state conflicts the US must have a decisive advantage in upper
tier assets, especially air power. If the US attempts to achieve this
advantage by using legacy Cold War technologies, it becomes a game of
fielding numbers much superior to potential opponents. In the instance
of China, this is unachievable given current PLA plans to field a force
comparable in numbers of Sukhoi/J-11 and Chengu J-10 numbers to the
current US inventory of F-15s and F-16s. As a result the US must match
China's numbers but using assets a generation ahead technologically -
such as the F/A-22A and MC-2A.
These 'sharp end' pressures are significant, and contrast
enormously with the 'lower tier' demands of conflict in the domain of
failed states and non state actors. Counter-insurgency and
counter-terrorist operations, peace enforcement and peace-keeping are
most intensive in several areas - rapidly deployable, highly mobile and
sustainable ground forces, and supporting, airlift, ISR and networking
capabilities. In these conflicts the only threat to air power are small
arms, RPGs and MANPADS - air space is effectively uncontested.
The defeat of the Taliban in 2001 and OIF in 2003, and
subsequent efforts to root out regime remnants and terrorists, set the
benchmark for this type of conflict. Numbers of ground troops and the
ability to sustain them in theatre for long periods of time become
critical to success.
A force structure which is heavily optimised for this
environment will be well equipped with amphibious ships, airlifters,
light and medium ground force divisions, helicopters and special forces
troops, operating under an umbrella of advanced ISR capabilities.
This is the future the US - and other Western nations - will
confront over coming decades. This reality is a direct and unavoidable
byproduct of the collapse of US and Soviet post-colonial era allegiance
purchasing in the Third World, and the ongoing industrialisation of
Asia.
If the US cuts down its upper tier forces, it loses key
capabilities required to provide a decisive assymetric advantage in
'lower tier' conflicts, and loses the game of global dominance in
'upper tier' conflicts.
Yet the US is also under significant pressures to recapitalise
and transform its ground forces to perform more effectively in 'lower
tier' conflicts.
The inevitable result of these pressures will be selective
culling of capabilities which fall into the gap between the two styles
of conflict.
This is why the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is highly exposed
in the currently developing strategic environment.
Joint
Strike Fighter vs
Evolving Force Structure Needs
The JSF was designed with a core role of Battlefield
Interdiction and Close Air Support in high intensity threat
environments. It is intended to replace US Air Force strike tasked
F-16Cs and A-10As, US Marine Corps and Royal Navy Harriers, and US Navy
F/A-18A-D, while filling the gap left by the loss of the A-6E, A-7E,
A-4 and A-12A.
A secondary aim of the JSF program was to displace the
Eurocanards in the global fighter replacement market, as older fleets
of F-16s, MiG-29s and F/A-18A/B aircraft ran out of fatigue life. This
market was largely centred in the EU, and JSF SDD marketing was heavily
targeted at NATO nations. A tertiary aim of the JSF program was to put
production engineering funds into finding cheaper ways of manufacturing
key technologies pioneered in the F/A-22A, such as low signature active
phased array radars, supercooled engines and stealth materials. In
effect, a feature of the JSF program has been its use as a cash cow to
fund cost reduction
technologies common to the F/A-22A.
The JSF design was sized around the model of conflict
envisaged during the early 1990s - typically former Soviet client
states choosing to fight large scale armour intensive land campaigns -
in an environment where basing would be available in the 400 NMI to 600
NMI combat radius to target bracket. The result of these constraints
has been an aircraft which is nearly identical in size and weight to
the highly successful Cold War era Republic F-105 Thunderchief.
Inevitably similar geographical and threat assumptions result in
similar airframe sizing and payload.
Many key design features and
capabilities of the JSF reflect
late 1980s US Air Force research in enhancing battlefield interdiction
and strike aircraft capabilities against Warpac forces, and the now
unique experience of Desert Storm, where Saddam opted to pit Warpac
style ground forces against US led air power. Tested against its target
design scenario, the JSF is apt to be a very effective asset.
What is not well understood is
that the JSF has been defined around assumptions and thinking which are
characteristic of scenarios dating to the Fulda Gap era, thus making it
a true artifact of the Cold War.
The question which QDR
planners have to face, however, is that
the 'JSF centric' style of combat is a narrow niche scenario sandwiched
in between the 21st century 'upper tier' and 'lower tier' threat
environments.
In dealing with 'lower tier' conflicts such as failed states,
militias, terrorist movements, and insurgents, the costly and unique
survivability features of the JSF, such as the spherical coverage DAS
(Distributed Aperture [InfraRed] System) and radar stealth are of no
value at all. In such environments the existing F-16E/F and F/A-18E/F
are more than adequate, and extended loiter time demands often make
larger types like the F-15E and B-52H more suitable for supporting
ground troops than the JSF would be. In practical terms the JSF is
overkill for lower tier conflicts, with the exception of the STOVL
variant which offers tremendous basing flexibility.
At the other end of the spectrum the JSF is also in
difficulty. The benchmark 'nation state conflict scenario' for the US
will be some form of conflict with China, probably over Taiwan.
Given the size of China's air force, and an environment where
attacks on the mainland could result in escalation to a nuclear
exchange, the US will have to fight a constrained air war aimed at
defeating the PLA-AF in the air, and destroying PLA-N surface assets
invading Taiwan.
In this environment combat aircraft will have to operate in
contested airspace possibly for the duration of the campaign, and fly
from bases such as Kadena, and critically Guam or other sites outside
the reach of the PLA-AF.
If we test the JSF design unrefuelled combat radius against
this environment it becomes evident very quickly that the aircraft's
sizing is not well adapted to the environment. Plots 1 and 2 depict,
respectively, histograms of great circle distances between PLA runways
in mainland China, and Guam and Okinawa. The plots are important for
two reasons - the unrefuelled combat radius of the PLA's Su-27/30
fighters is 650-750 NMI and the unrefuelled combat radius of the JSF is
similar or lesser.
While basing in Okinawa is viable for the JSF in terms of
reach, it is also exposed to the full brunt of any counterforce
operations by the PLA. Basing in Guam, or other 'safe' sites, does not
suffer this problem, but has single engine JSFs towed by tanker to
targets beyond 1,500 NMI, with long legs over water, an environment not
unlike that experienced by USAAF P-47s and P-51s during the bombing of
Japan in 1945. As the JSF will require F/A-22A escorts in this type of
environment, the cost of each bomb delivered by JSF is magnified by the
cost of tankers and escorts, and the cost of CSAR (Combat Search and
Rescue) assets to cover the routes from Guam.
The limitations of the JSF in this 'upper tier' scenario
become more pronounced once the roles and missions package is
considered. Most such operations would involve air superiority sorties
to defeat PLA strike sorties against Taiwan, US basing in the region
and maritime targets in the area, fighter escort sorties for ISR assets
and LRMP ASW assets, and anti-shipping strikes against the upper tier
of the PLA-N surface fleet. In all of these roles the JSF is of
marginal utility compared to the F/A-22A.
The inevitable reality is that the JSF is of little practical
value in the benchmark 'nation state conflict scenario' when compared
to the F/A-22A. Its optimisation for the mid 1990s perception of future
conflicts is what constrains its utility.
With China growing in strategic importance by the day, it is
inevitable that US planners will be exploring a range of China related
scenarios. The JSF will not be able to contribute significantly in this
style of conflict.
If the current QDR is not subjected to overwhelming political
interference, one of its likely conclusions is that the number of JSFs
built should be reduced, and the number of F/A-22As built should be
increased.
Recent reports emerging in the US and UK media indicate this
is likely to be the case, and the reasons behind this will almost
certainly be those presented previously.
If JSF numbers are reduced, what options then exist for the US?
Fighter
Options for the US
The only future operators which cannot live without the JSF
are the US Marine Corps and Royal Navy both of whom are committed to
small STOVL carriers. Intended expeditionary STOVL JSF units of the US
Air Force also depend on the JSF.
The US Air Force is presented with the reality that 50% of the
current JSF production budget would buy around 1,000 F/A-22As, with the
assumption of unit costs below US$100M after 200 aircraft are built.
Therefore chopping down the US Air Force JSF buy to fund a block of
several hundred STOVL JSFs and 1,000 F/A-22As makes for a more flexible
and useful future air/land dominance fighter fleet.
It is worth observing that even if the JSF collapsed today,
the US Air Force has already extracted many of the key technologies it
wanted for the F/A-22A, such as cheaper transmit-receive modules for
the radar, cheaper COTS computer processors, a second generation
supercooled turbine and advances in other manufacturing techniques.
Extending production of the F-16 and F-15, and further
evolution of these designs, to cover future Battlefield Air
Interdiction and Close Air Support roles remains an option. Insertion
of key JSF technologies such as the F135/F136 engines, integrated
avionics, DAS, EOTS and the APQ-81 radar would significantly alter the
long term life cycle costs of both designs, and their capabilities in
these specific roles.
The utility of the naval CV JSF is an open question. While
incrementally more capable and stealthier than the F/A-18E/F, it is a
single engine design which is not a favoured configuration for CV ops.
Moreover, delays in JSF delivery put the Navy under pressure to buy
more F/A-18E/Fs to cover life expiry of the F-14D and older F/A-18C-D.
The Navy is expected to buy the JSF when it faces major budgetary
pressures in surface fleet replacements, and replacement of the P-3C
fleet with the P-8A MMA. Given that the JSF offers only incremental
gains against the F/A-18E/F, the Navy will have a very low pain
threshold to JSF delays and cost blowouts. We should not be surprised
if the Navy is the first to bail out of JSF.
The prospective export market for the JSF has also been
problematic. Only a modest number of nations signed up and, with the
exception of the UK, all contributing only token amounts to the SDD.
Most EU participants have been decidedly unhappy with the level of
technology access and industrial participation offered, expecting a
program similar to EU porkbarrels where industrial issues dominate
others. Delays and cost creep in the program present additional costs
for most EU players, requiring life extension of their existing legacy
fleets. Many EU operators have been unilaterally downsizing as the
collapse of the Soviet Empire has removed strategic pressures of
substance. The US Congress has not been very agreeable with the idea of
technology transfer to the EU, seeing this as yet another means of the
US indirectly subsidising EU manufacturers to compete against US
manufacturers at a future date.
While JSF marketing literature suggests that JSF exports will
be largely one for one replacements of F-16s, there is no evidence to
support the viability of this proposition, given the ongoing slide in
EU defence investments and concomitant force structure size reductions.
Moreover, unlike the highly successful 1970s F-16 export program, cited
extensively in the early marketing of the JSF program in the US and
globally, and from which the notion of one-for-one replacements of
export F-16s emerged, the JSF has to contend with a multiplicity of
competitors. The Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, the Dassault Rafale,
the Eurofighter Typhoon, the SAAB Gripen, the Sukhoi Su-27/30/35, the
MiG-29 and the Dassault Mirage 2000 series are all on offer with often
attractive industrial or licencing deals. In the days of the F-16
export successes, there was no such competition.
The future of the JSF in the
evolving strategic environment, and evolving US budgetary and force
structure debate, is likely to be largely determined by the political
clout of the US Marine Corps, and the lobbying power of industrial
vested interests. Without these champions the JSF will be fighting for
survival.
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